Moses Avalon is one of the nation’s leading music-business consultants and artists’-rights advocates and is the author of a top-selling music business reference, Confessions of a Record Producer. More of his articles can be found at www.mosesavalon.com.

It is a known fact that many acts get stuck in limbo once signed to a major record label, neither being released nor advanced to the next level. How many of the acts that majors sign ever actually get released or make a second album? Does staying indie increase the odds of commercial success or keep them about the same? The following answers, from the new tell-all book, 100 Answers to 50 Questions on the Music Business, by music business veteran Moses Avalon, are real eye-openers.

In Las Vegas, the odds to each game are readily available: roulette, 33:1; blackjack, 1.5:1 (if played optimally); craps, anywhere from 2:1 to 9:1. But what about the chances of getting signed and having a successful career recording albums? Sure, there are a lot of factors — like talent — but what about the raw odds? The “Vegas” odds?

I did some research and was intrigued to find that there are no published stats on this. Here, perhaps for the first time, are the Vegas odds of going major verses staying indie. (Update: While tweaking this piece, a new article came out on Music Think Tank with more data on this subject.)

*Note: All math equations are noted by a number in parentheses (#), and the equation is at the bottom of the post. I do this to maintain the narrative flow. (Also, I hate math.)

Getting Signed

According to my sources at the various major labels, each year, approximately 43,000 demos are sent to the 35 major labels. (Up from about 30,000 10 years ago.) I consider these 35 labels “major,” as they are directly connected to the four major US distributors or their affiliates. Out of those 43,000 demo submissions, a total of about 30 (down from about 150 in the early 2000s) get that rare multi-album deal of yesteryear, which includes a large advance and all the perks. But if you count all the demo, development, P&D, and various forms of 360 and licensing deals, it adds up to about 1,000 new deals each year. It’s not an even split. Between Universal, Warner, Sony/BMG, and EMI, it can get pretty lopsided, with about 500 deals parsed throughout the massive family of Universal labels alone.

So the Vegas odds of even getting signed to one label, if you submit your demo to all four major labels, is about 1:42. Just a little bit worse than playing double-zero on the roulette wheel. But now, let’s drill down.